Thu, Nov 2, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 29 | 19 | 427 |
| EDM | 113 | 011 | 225 | 349 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:08DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mason Marchment, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:00EDMEvander KaneAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 3:25DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 16:06DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 2:37DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson · Slap, 0.34 xG4–1
- P3 10:35EDMSam GagnerAssists: Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak · Poke, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 13:36EDMSam GagnerAssists: Evander Kane · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:17DALCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:16DALMason Marchment: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:45EDMEvander Kane: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:54DALMason Marchment: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:31EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min
- P3 8:05DALMason Marchment: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston9:02
xG 0.63–0.62 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment10:24
xG 0.36–0.59 (37%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:13
xG 0.49–0.74 (40%)attempts 8–21goals 1–1
- Smith – Steel – Dellandrea6:35
xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell2:06
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist10:32
xG 0.62–0.81 (43%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Harley11:11
xG 0.73–0.95 (44%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins9:41
xG 1.21–0.66 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 1–2
- Gagner – McLeod – Holloway4:48
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:31
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Gagner – Kane – Nugent-Hopkins3:00
xG 0.18–0.13 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard14:16
xG 0.93–0.46 (67%)attempts 19–9goals 2–1
- Nurse – Desharnais2:10
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse9:03
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).