Thu, Nov 2, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Montréal Canadiens 2, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 112 | 010 | 18 | 230 |
| ARI | 18 | 119 | 18 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17ARINick SchmaltzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 7:13MTLSean MonahanAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 19:21ARILawson CrouseAssists: Matias Maccelli, Nick Bjugstad · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 2:59MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Tanner Pearson, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 6:07ARINick SchmaltzPPGWGAssists: Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:22ARINick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:17MTLJustin Barron: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P1 11:57ARIMichael Carcone: Holding2 min
- P2 12:18ARIMichael Carcone: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:18MTLJoel Armia: Interference2 min
- P3 1:24ARIClayton Keller: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:22MTLArber Xhekaj: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:42ARIMatias Maccelli: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:16MTLJustin Barron: Holding2 min
- P3 13:55MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Harvey-Pinard – Caufield4:11
xG 0.17–0.06 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Newhook2:17
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Ylonen – Caufield2:02
xG 0.00–0.18 (2%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Ylonen5:41
xG 0.07–0.33 (18%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarris – Xhekaj6:15
xG 0.23–0.12 (65%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Matheson – Kovacevic9:51
xG 0.35–0.49 (41%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Kovacevic – Harris3:09
xG 0.00–0.15 (1%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton10:36
xG 1.46–0.17 (90%)attempts 25–11goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Carcone – Cooley2:36
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli7:51
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – O'Brien – McBain5:21
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – Durzi3:27
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Durzi – Moser12:46
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Dumba – Dermott7:41
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).