Fri, Nov 3, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 39 | 16 | 14 | 519 |
| BUF | 04 | 012 | 16 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:03PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Bobby Brink, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 1:31PHILouie BelpedioGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 14:57PHITravis KonecnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 14:35PHIGarnet HathawayAssists: Ryan Poehling, Nicolas Deslauriers · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–0
- P3 2:24BUFHenri JokiharjuAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 11:28PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:11BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:59BUFPeyton Krebs: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:19PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:15PHICam York: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:04PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:04BUFDylan Cozens: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:04BUFDylan Cozens: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:04PHIGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Hathaway – Poehling7:00
xG 0.84–0.19 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Konecny – Frost – Foerster11:49
xG 0.80–0.45 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Laughton – Farabee – Brink10:45
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Atkinson – Tippett – Cates12:53
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Walker13:07
xG 0.82–0.33 (71%)attempts 22–6goals 2–0
- Sanheim – York17:22
xG 0.83–0.70 (54%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Belpedio – Zamula12:52
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Greenway – Thompson6:45
xG 0.55–0.06 (90%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Tuch – Cozens – Rousek3:52
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs9:39
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Greenway – Thompson – Biro3:19
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Power5:34
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Clifton – Jokiharju3:44
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin2:11
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).