Sat, Nov 4, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Winnipeg Jets 5, Arizona Coyotes 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 03 | 315 | 29 | 527 |
| ARI | 18 | 29 | 08 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:31ARIJ.J. MoserAssists: Matias Maccelli, Lawson Crouse · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:49ARILiam O'BrienAssists: Jack McBain · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P2 7:31WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Mason Appleton, Josh Morrissey · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 10:05WPGBrenden DillonAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 14:47ARILawson CrousePPAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P2 17:01WPGNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 3:23WPGBrenden DillonGWGAssists: Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry · Slap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 7:16WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Adam Lowry, Brenden Dillon · Poke, 0.17 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:22WPGJosh Morrissey: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:07ARILogan Cooley: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:52ARISean Durzi: Interference2 min
- P2 12:49WPGBrenden Dillon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:29ARIBarrett Hayton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:46WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:39
xG 0.75–0.11 (87%)attempts 18–6goals 3–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti9:55
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Barron – Kupari – Gustafsson5:09
xG 0.07–0.23 (24%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo12:11
xG 0.49–0.76 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey16:25
xG 0.84–0.42 (67%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Schmidt – Samberg9:56
xG 0.27–0.24 (52%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk13:56
xG 0.57–0.58 (50%)attempts 22–6goals 3–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – O'Brien – McBain9:05
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton10:36
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley2:50
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli9:48
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Dermott13:21
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Välimäki – Durzi2:05
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Durzi – Moser13:42
xG 0.53–0.74 (42%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).