Sat, Nov 4, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 4, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 212 | 19 | 19 | 430 |
| DET | 114 | 117 | 39 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21BOSJames van RiemsdykAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P1 9:28BOSMatthew PoitrasAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P1 16:20DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: David Perron, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 9:59DETJake WalmanPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Daniel Sprong · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 13:41BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 6:50DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 8:56DETDavid PerronAssists: J.T. Compher, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 10:34DETAndrew CoppGWGAssists: J.T. Compher, David Perron · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 14:11BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Matthew Poitras, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–5
Penalties (18)
- P1 6:51BOSParker Wotherspoon: Holding2 min
- P1 15:46BOSBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:42BOSJames van Riemsdyk: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:42DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:42DETJake Walman: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:55DETJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P2 3:00BOSJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
- P2 4:53BOSMason Lohrei: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:00BOSMason Lohrei: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:45DETJake Walman: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:30DETAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:32BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:48BOSCharlie Coyle: Holding2 min
- P3 18:48BOSOskar Steen: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 19:40BOSHampus Lindholm: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:40DETDylan Larkin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:45BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:45BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beecher won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Pastrnak – Zacha9:45
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk7:49
xG 0.61–0.27 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Heinen – Steen – Beecher7:26
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
- Frederic – Geekie – Poitras9:01
xG 0.07–0.59 (10%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo12:36
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Wotherspoon3:57
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 2–2
- Shattenkirk – Lindholm2:12
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – DeBrincat – Raymond9:58
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Compher3:21
xG 0.39–0.05 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
- Czarnik – Kostin – Veleno2:19
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sprong – Rasmussen – Veleno2:15
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Maatta3:16
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Holl – Gostisbehere2:07
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider12:55
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).