Sat, Nov 4, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Montréal Canadiens 3, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 113 | 111 | 333 |
| STL | 214 | 111 | 310 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 4:01MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Alex Newhook, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 16:37STLRobert ThomasAssists: Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 13:03STLBrandon SaadAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 14:48MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 2:50STLAlexey ToropchenkoSHGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 5:53STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 16:00STLKasperi KapanenENAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–6
- P3 18:32MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Cole Caufield, Mike Matheson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:50STLKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:37STLTyler Tucker: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:41STLSammy Blais: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:10STLJordan Kyrou: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00MTLArber Xhekaj: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Evans – Pezzetta8:48
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský13:20
xG 0.88–0.81 (52%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Gallagher – Pearson – Monahan7:50
xG 0.21–0.73 (22%)attempts 7–10goals 1–2
- Anderson – Dvorak – Newhook11:54
xG 0.23–0.97 (19%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Harris9:22
xG 0.57–0.43 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Harris – Xhekaj5:50
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Xhekaj11:12
xG 0.26–0.47 (35%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Saad – Kyrou12:29
xG 1.13–0.05 (96%)attempts 16–7goals 3–0
- Hayes – Vrana – Toropchenko10:21
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kapanen – Thomas10:24
xG 0.43–0.59 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Blais – Neighbours8:16
xG 0.12–0.55 (18%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug16:07
xG 1.02–0.62 (62%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Scandella – Tucker13:50
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Leddy – Parayko17:38
xG 1.02–1.03 (50%)attempts 25–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).