Sat, Nov 4, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 113 | 219 | 11 | 446 |
| NYI | 111 | 28 | 05 | 01 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:40NYINoah DobsonAssists: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 4:11NYISimon HolmstromSHAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 7:46NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Bo Horvat, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 8:18CARJalen ChatfieldAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–3
- P3 12:19CARDmitry OrlovAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 15:26CARJesperi KotkaniemiPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 1:14CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:34CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:22NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:31CARBrent Burns: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:31NYIBrock Nelson: Interference2 min
- P2 2:59NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:26NYIScott Mayfield: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook13:07
xG 0.65–0.17 (79%)attempts 30–6goals 1–0
- Noesen – Lemieux – Drury7:12
xG 0.37–0.02 (94%)attempts 15–1goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi7:05
xG 0.18–0.36 (34%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:57
xG 0.41–1.02 (28%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin17:43
xG 1.02–0.67 (60%)attempts 39–11goals 0–0
- Orlov – Skjei7:30
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Orlov – DeAngelo6:58
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Barzal14:35
xG 0.82–0.39 (68%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall9:54
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 7–22goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:42
xG 0.02–0.36 (6%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
- Pageau – Fasching – Holmstrom10:20
xG 0.06–0.47 (11%)attempts 3–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson9:09
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov2:42
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Bolduc7:13
xG 0.13–0.18 (43%)attempts 1–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).