Mon, Nov 6, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Boston Bruins 3, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 214 | 011 | 14 | 329 |
| DAL | 011 | 010 | 216 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:21BOSJohn BeecherAssists: Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 14:09BOSMason LohreiAssists: Danton Heinen, Ian Mitchell · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 5:09DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Esa Lindell, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 9:51BOSBrad MarchandPPGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk, David Pastrnak · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 19:32DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:47DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:04BOSIan Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:26DALJani Hakanpää: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:12BOSHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P3 9:45DALMason Marchment: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 11:23DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:54BOSHampus Lindholm: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Beecher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Steen – Beecher8:37
xG 0.50–0.05 (92%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk10:12
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Frederic – Geekie – Poitras9:48
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pastrnak – Zacha9:48
xG 0.32–0.72 (31%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Wotherspoon5:00
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Lohrei6:18
xG 0.07–0.15 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Carlo17:31
xG 0.70–0.80 (47%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Marchment – Steel6:12
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Smith – Robertson – Dellandrea2:24
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:50
xG 0.34–0.41 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Smith – Seguin – Marchment2:04
xG 0.04–0.12 (25%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen9:42
xG 0.49–0.02 (97%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley2:16
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Hakanpää – Harley5:35
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).