Tue, Nov 7, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 18 | 15 | 02 | 221 |
| CAR | 19 | 09 | 17 | 12 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:43CARTony DeAngeloPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 3:51BUFAlex TuchUnassisted · Snap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P3 7:54CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Sebastian Aho, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 9:23BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 1:30CARMartin NecasGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brady Skjei · Tip-in, 0.23 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:09CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:19CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:19BUFVictor Olofsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:25BUFJJ Peterka: Holding2 min
- P2 8:06BUFRyan Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:31BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:32CARAndrei Svechnikov: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:12CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt2:16
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Peterka8:15
xG 0.07–0.22 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson8:32
xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost7:00
xG 0.16–0.64 (20%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Johnson14:50
xG 1.08–0.17 (86%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Clifton – Power5:21
xG 0.19–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Clifton – Jokiharju2:00
xG 0.18–0.13 (57%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook7:13
xG 0.59–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov9:14
xG 0.77–0.27 (74%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Noesen – Bunting – Drury5:47
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Aho – Necas – Jarvis11:08
xG 0.32–0.99 (24%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Skjei16:55
xG 1.49–0.25 (86%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin14:43
xG 0.69–0.63 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Chatfield11:10
xG 0.13–0.96 (12%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).