Tue, Nov 7, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Winnipeg Jets 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 117 | 210 | 537 |
| STL | 112 | 06 | 14 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:44WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Alex Iafallo, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 16:15WPGNeal PionkAssists: Mark Scheifele, Alex Iafallo · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 16:55STLRobert ThomasAssists: Tyler Tucker, Kasperi Kapanen · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 4:34WPGKyle ConnorPPGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Alex Iafallo · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 1:02WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 8:08STLBrayden SchennAssists: Torey Krug, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 17:32WPGCole PerfettiENAssists: Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.54 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:31WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:21STLBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:49STLKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:46WPGMorgan Barron: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:46STLTyler Tucker: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:23STLNick Leddy: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Iafallo12:02
xG 1.31–0.29 (82%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton11:40
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Barron – Kupari – Gustafsson9:28
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti9:58
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey18:40
xG 1.38–0.24 (85%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Samberg12:42
xG 0.51–0.46 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Dillon – Pionk15:16
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Vrana – Thomas2:40
xG 0.11–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Blais – Neighbours10:36
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou10:55
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Hayes – Kapanen – Toropchenko2:21
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Tucker13:26
xG 0.28–0.63 (31%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Faulk – Krug14:16
xG 0.36–0.74 (32%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Leddy – Parayko17:54
xG 0.51–1.09 (32%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).