Wed, Nov 8, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Florida Panthers 4, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 28 | 06 | 110 | 11 | 425 |
| WSH | 111 | 27 | 010 | 00 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:42WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Darcy Kuemper · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 12:49FLAOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 16:45FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 6:13WSHConnor McMichaelSHAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Martin Fehérváry · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 15:51WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Connor McMichael · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 3:33FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Gustav Forsling, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 0:15FLASam ReinhartGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evan Rodrigues · Snap, 0.41 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 5:01WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:29FLAEvan Rodrigues: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:58FLAMike Reilly: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Stenlund – Luostarinen11:23
xG 1.01–0.22 (82%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues13:48
xG 0.49–0.07 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Lorentz – Lomberg – Lockwood6:27
xG 0.09–0.03 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Lundell13:00
xG 0.27–1.23 (18%)attempts 6–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Mahura10:27
xG 0.89–0.28 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Ekman-Larsson – Forsling17:57
xG 0.77–0.51 (60%)attempts 12–16goals 3–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola17:20
xG 0.50–0.45 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Kuznetsov – Milano5:51
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome6:36
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson8:09
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Oshie – Milano – Strome6:50
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin3:41
xG 0.63–0.14 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry4:05
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry12:16
xG 0.42–0.23 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).