Thu, Nov 9, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 2, Boston Bruins 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 115 | 05 | 19 | 229 |
| BOS | 112 | 16 | 317 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:05BOSTrent FredericAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 17:23NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Bat, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 6:06BOSCharlie CoylePPAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
- P3 2:50NYISimon HolmstromSHAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 3:33BOSDavid PastrnakPPGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 9:26BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 18:39BOSCharlie CoyleENAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.78 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:17BOSTrent Frederic: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:59NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:40NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:16NYISamuel Bolduc: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poitras won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Barzal – Wahlstrom12:11
xG 0.85–0.16 (84%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:40
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Nelson12:28
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 19–19goals 0–2
- Pageau – Fasching – Holmstrom10:54
xG 0.07–0.35 (18%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAho – Dobson15:54
xG 0.77–0.56 (58%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Bolduc13:00
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Pulock – Romanov17:34
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – DeBrusk – Poitras10:20
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Coyle – Frederic11:21
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 16–19goals 2–0
- Brown – Steen – Beecher9:09
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Marchand – Pastrnak – Zacha12:20
xG 0.31–0.65 (32%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Forbort7:51
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Forbort – Mitchell2:13
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mitchell14:05
xG 0.50–0.46 (52%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).