Thu, Nov 9, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 410 | 19 | 010 | 529 |
| TBL | 214 | 010 | 19 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20TBLAnthony CirelliPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 4:42CHIConnor BedardAssists: Philipp Kurashev · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 12:31TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 16:43CHIKevin KorchinskiAssists: Ryan Donato, MacKenzie Entwistle · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P1 17:38CHITyler JohnsonAssists: Connor Bedard, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P1 19:52CHIConnor BedardGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Philipp Kurashev · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–2
- P2 2:12CHICorey PerryPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Nick Foligno · Tip-in, 0.18 xG5–2
- P3 17:50TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:12CHISeth Jones: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:12TBLTanner Jeannot: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 5:29CHITaylor Hall: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:31TBLNick Paul: Interference2 min
- P3 0:43CHINick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:03TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P3 11:31CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:16TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min
- P3 19:16TBLVictor Hedman: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 19:16TBLAnthony Cirelli: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHall – Kurashev – Bedard2:41
xG 0.74–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Kurashev – Bedard7:05
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 4–6goals 2–0
- Johnson – Hall – Dickinson8:55
xG 0.14–0.27 (35%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Perry – Donato – Entwistle5:53
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Kaiser4:14
xG 0.58–0.21 (74%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Murphy – Korchinski6:23
xG 0.57–0.33 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
- Murphy – Kaiser4:19
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Motte – Merela5:59
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel9:57
xG 0.73–0.61 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Cirelli – Eyssimont – Jeannot7:20
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Barré-Boulet5:42
xG 0.26–0.76 (25%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Perbix8:36
xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Raddysh – Sergachev13:27
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Hedman – Cernak9:44
xG 0.82–0.86 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).