Thu, Nov 9, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 3, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 18 | 18 | 323 |
| WPG | 114 | 314 | 29 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04WPGMason AppletonAssists: Adam Lowry, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 6:43NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 1:05WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Alex Iafallo · Slap, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 3:48WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dylan DeMelo · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 10:33WPGCole PerfettiPPGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P2 12:05NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 12:51WPGBrenden DillonAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Morgan Barron · Slap, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 16:16NSHPhilip TomasinoAssists: Tyson Barrie, Marc Del Gaizo · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 16:44WPGKyle ConnorENAssists: Alex Iafallo, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 10:02NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:02WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:11NSHCole Smith: Instigator2 min
- P1 16:11NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:11WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:11NSHCole Smith: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 8:37NSHMarc Del Gaizo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:07NSHGustav Nyquist: Interference2 min
- P2 11:45WPGCole Perfetti: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:44WPGNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:53WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Holding2 min
- P3 9:09WPGBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:06NSHRyan O'Reilly: Interference2 min
- P3 14:02WPGCole Perfetti: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Foudy – Tomasino7:35
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista7:23
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Novak – Evangelista3:01
xG 0.10–0.28 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith6:24
xG 0.01–0.22 (5%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Carrier2:46
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro12:04
xG 0.29–0.15 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Fabbro – Del Gaizo2:36
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Iafallo11:38
xG 1.22–0.15 (89%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
- Barron – Kupari – Gustafsson4:49
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti9:14
xG 0.18–0.24 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton6:22
xG 0.04–0.50 (7%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk10:06
xG 0.93–0.49 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey13:45
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- Dillon – DeMelo2:16
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).