Fri, Nov 10, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Minnesota Wild 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 014 | 111 | 235 |
| BUF | 111 | 16 | 18 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:02BUFHenri JokiharjuAssists: Owen Power · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 19:30MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 19:02BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 3:33BUFJJ PeterkaGWGAssists: Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.27 xG1–3
- P3 12:27MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.23 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:25MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:05BUFJJ Peterka: Holding2 min
- P1 18:34BUFRyan Johnson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:12MINZach Bogosian: Kneeing2 min
- P2 4:57BUFCasey Mittelstadt: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 19:24MINKirill Kaprizov: Interference2 min
- P3 9:27MINBrock Faber: Holding2 min
- P3 10:50BUFJordan Greenway: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov8:45
xG 1.30–0.34 (79%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Johansson – Boldy – Rossi7:07
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Eriksson Ek7:45
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi2:42
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber13:57
xG 1.24–0.66 (65%)attempts 20–12goals 0–2
- Spurgeon – Middleton12:45
xG 0.83–0.43 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Mermis11:12
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Thompson – Peterka3:16
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Rousek5:06
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Thompson – Cozens4:50
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Krebs – Rousek – Savoie3:11
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jokiharju – Power14:01
xG 0.37–0.58 (39%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Clifton8:44
xG 0.18–0.67 (21%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Johnson14:15
xG 0.24–0.99 (19%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).