Fri, Nov 10, 2023·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 112 | 07 | 230 |
| FLA | 213 | 112 | 210 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Jesper Fast, Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 3:01FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 18:53FLAUvis BalinskisAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Eetu Luostarinen · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 7:08FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 16:40CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jordan Martinook, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 13:18FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Gustav Forsling · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 16:18FLAKevin StenlundENAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:37FLAGustav Forsling: Interference2 min
- P2 12:45FLASteven Lorentz: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:56CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:45FLAEvan Rodrigues: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:33CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stenlund won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Aho – Necas4:05
xG 0.22–0.11 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Staal – Fast – Jarvis3:08
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Noesen – Jarvis2:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook6:13
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce14:54
xG 1.02–0.23 (81%)attempts 22–15goals 2–1
- Orlov – Chatfield14:53
xG 0.19–0.78 (20%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
- Burns – Slavin17:10
xG 0.37–1.59 (19%)attempts 22–22goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues11:47
xG 0.90–0.34 (73%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Lundell10:48
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Lorentz – Lomberg – Lockwood6:09
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Cousins – Stenlund – Luostarinen11:09
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Forsling14:38
xG 1.25–0.64 (66%)attempts 18–16goals 2–1
- Mahura – Balinskis11:49
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola18:33
xG 0.43–0.69 (38%)attempts 12–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).