Fri, Nov 10, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Calgary Flames 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 28 | 13 | 06 | 1 | 428 |
| TOR | 28 | 214 | 011 | 03 | 2 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01TORWilliam NylanderPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 7:02CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 8:18TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Max Domi, Nick Robertson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 1:06TORWilliam NylanderSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 4:45TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.27 xG1–4
- P2 5:33CGYNikita ZadorovAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P2 12:22CGYA.J. GreerAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 3:22CGYMartin PospisilAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 2. CGY Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 4. CGY Yegor Sharangovich scored
- 5. TOR Mitch Marner scored
- 6. CGY Connor Zary stopped
- 7. TOR Nick Robertson stopped
- 8. CGY Nazem Kadri stopped
- 9. TOR Max Domi scored
- 10. CGY Dillon Dube stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:13CGYA.J. Greer: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:11TORTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:14CGYNazem Kadri: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:14TORWilliam Lagesson: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:33TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Greer – Dube – Ruzicka6:16
xG 0.11–0.30 (26%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Pospisil10:50
xG 0.32–0.62 (34%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Lindholm – Mangiapane12:03
xG 0.40–0.90 (31%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Kadri – Sharangovich – Zary12:02
xG 0.23–0.84 (21%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Tanev – Zadorov3:08
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Zadorov – DeSimone11:03
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Hanifin – Andersson2:18
xG 0.01–0.14 (4%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander12:50
xG 1.17–0.12 (90%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson9:28
xG 0.41–0.03 (94%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies13:14
xG 0.97–0.66 (59%)attempts 17–17goals 0–2
- Reaves – Gregor – Kampf2:52
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly19:47
xG 1.40–0.60 (70%)attempts 25–22goals 2–2
- Giordano – McCabe15:23
xG 1.04–0.71 (59%)attempts 19–15goals 0–2
- Lagesson – Benoit12:53
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).