Fri, Nov 10, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 217 | 17 | 312 | 636 |
| ANA | 015 | 115 | 28 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57PHISean CouturierAssists: Cam Atkinson, Egor Zamula · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 12:31PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Travis Sanheim, Tyson Foerster · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 2:33PHILouie BelpedioAssists: Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 13:15ANALeo CarlssonPPAssists: Alex Killorn, Mason McTavish · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 7:39PHITravis SanheimGWGAssists: Joel Farabee, Cam York · Backhand, 0.23 xG4–1
- P3 10:34ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Alex Killorn, Pavel Mintyukov · Snap, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 13:07PHIOwen TippettAssists: Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 18:32ANALeo CarlssonPPAssists: Troy Terry, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–3
- P3 18:59PHIOwen TippettENAssists: Travis Sanheim, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.69 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:11ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:02PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:33ANARadko Gudas: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:34PHICam Atkinson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:48PHIMorgan Frost: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:46PHICam York: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:39PHIEgor Zamula: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:56ANALukas Dostal: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:37PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Couturier – Foerster8:21
xG 0.97–0.42 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Konecny – Tippett – Frost7:06
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1
- Cates – Farabee – Brink4:18
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Laughton – Farabee – Brink3:47
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Walker12:41
xG 0.90–0.23 (79%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Sanheim – York14:07
xG 0.97–0.58 (62%)attempts 7–17goals 2–0
- Belpedio – Zamula10:35
xG 0.50–0.63 (44%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Terry – Carlsson12:46
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason8:15
xG 0.19–0.33 (36%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Jones7:57
xG 0.34–0.50 (40%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish9:41
xG 0.47–1.10 (30%)attempts 10–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Fowler – LaCombe13:41
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov8:35
xG 0.45–0.74 (38%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Gudas – Vaakanainen14:39
xG 0.25–0.61 (29%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).