Sat, Nov 11, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 27 | 18 | 17 | 422 |
| DET | 29 | 211 | 18 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41DETLucas RaymondAssists: J.T. Compher · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 4:26DETRobby FabbriAssists: Christian Fischer, Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.25 xG0–2
- P1 5:33CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 18:14CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov · Bat, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 5:41CBJSean KuralyAssists: Zach Werenski, Erik Gudbranson · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 16:01DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 18:19DETDaniel SprongAssists: Klim Kostin · Snap, 0.20 xG3–4
- P3 2:33DETJake WalmanGWGAssists: Christian Fischer, Joseph Veleno · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–5
- P3 11:30CBJPatrik LaineUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:22DETRobby Fabbri: Holding2 min
- P2 2:55DETBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:33CBJJohnny Gaudreau: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:22CBJEmil Bemstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00CBJErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:21DETRobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli9:04
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Roslovic – Bemstrom – Sillinger10:17
xG 0.53–0.53 (50%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Danforth – Texier9:16
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Laine10:52
xG 0.09–1.38 (6%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski2:21
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Werenski13:37
xG 0.66–0.58 (53%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Severson – Provorov14:22
xG 0.38–0.71 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFabbri – Fischer – Veleno10:04
xG 1.54–0.41 (79%)attempts 20–8goals 2–1
- Sprong – Rasmussen – Kostin7:41
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond10:08
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Perron – Copp – Compher10:22
xG 0.10–0.39 (20%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot16:02
xG 1.35–0.67 (67%)attempts 18–22goals 4–2
- Walman – Seider14:21
xG 0.83–0.61 (58%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Holl – Gostisbehere9:04
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).