Sat, Nov 11, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 115 | 19 | 28 | 432 |
| TBL | 09 | 03 | 010 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:10CARTeuvo TeravainenPPGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 4:32CARSebastian AhoAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 11:20CARBrent BurnsAssists: Brady Skjei · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 17:54CARStefan NoesenAssists: Michael Bunting, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:41TBLTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 1:41CARMichael Bunting: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:51TBLLuke Glendening: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:56TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:15CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:52CARJesper Fast: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:11CARBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:46TBLBrandon Hagel: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Martinook8:37
xG 0.81–0.49 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:10
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Fast – Noesen – Drury6:04
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook2:35
xG 0.00–0.02 (4%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce14:37
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin16:21
xG 1.00–0.60 (62%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Orlov – DeAngelo11:22
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Point – Eyssimont2:18
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Watson – Glendening – Motte2:48
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Point – Hagel – Barré-Boulet5:01
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Point – Cirelli – Hagel3:33
xG 0.07–0.09 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Perbix4:38
xG 0.56–0.09 (86%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak8:33
xG 0.61–0.31 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- de Haan – Sergachev2:23
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).