Sat, Nov 11, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
St. Louis Blues 8, Colorado Avalanche 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 317 | 16 | 419 | 842 |
| COL | 013 | 111 | 114 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08STLBrayden SchennAssists: Torey Krug, Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:53STLBrayden SchennAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 19:58STLTorey KrugGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 11:52STLPavel BuchnevichSHAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Colton Parayko · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–0
- P2 16:07COLMikko RantanenAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 1:20STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–1
- P3 2:49STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Slap, 0.10 xG6–1
- P3 15:57STLPavel BuchnevichSHAssists: Robert Thomas · Backhand, 0.22 xG7–1
- P3 19:11STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.33 xG8–1
- P3 19:32COLJack JohnsonAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.02 xG8–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:40COLRiley Tufte: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:21STLRobert Thomas: Holding2 min
- P2 13:10COLJonathan Drouin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:58COLTomas Tatar: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:12COLCale Makar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:47STLAlexey Toropchenko: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:20STLKevin Hayes: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas2:39
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Blais – Neighbours7:38
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou7:19
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 4–13goals 2–0
- Hayes – Vrana – Toropchenko6:29
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug15:30
xG 1.70–0.64 (73%)attempts 20–21goals 3–1
- Leddy – Parayko14:50
xG 1.10–0.83 (57%)attempts 14–22goals 1–1
- Scandella – Perunovich9:38
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Nichushkin6:57
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor10:56
xG 0.66–0.49 (58%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen4:20
xG 0.27–0.25 (53%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Johansen – Rantanen – Tufte5:05
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:28
xG 1.11–0.65 (63%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Makar – Byram2:51
xG 0.04–0.24 (15%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Byram2:20
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).