Sat, Nov 11, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 27 | 111 | 426 |
| LAK | 09 | 120 | 18 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:59PHIOwen TippettAssists: Sean Walker · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 6:26PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Owen Tippett, Sean Walker · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 16:30PHIMorgan FrostGWGAssists: Nick Seeler, Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 18:06LAKCarl GrundstromAssists: Trevor Lewis, Andreas Englund · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 7:04PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–1
- P3 9:50LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Quinton Byfield, Vladislav Gavrikov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:36PHISean Walker: Holding2 min
- P2 12:25LAKKevin Fiala: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:33PHISean Walker: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:06LAKQuinton Byfield: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:46PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:15LAKTrevor Moore: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Couturier – Foerster10:35
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Cates6:36
xG 0.33–0.06 (84%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Konecny – Tippett – Frost10:44
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 9–12goals 3–0
- Laughton – Poehling – Farabee9:16
xG 0.42–0.67 (38%)attempts 5–25goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Walker13:37
xG 1.04–0.26 (80%)attempts 16–16goals 4–1
- Belpedio – Mete9:10
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York16:16
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte7:35
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Danault – Fiala – Moore9:57
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 15–7goals 0–2
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:30
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Dubois – Kaliyev – Laferriere10:53
xG 0.26–0.60 (30%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy11:54
xG 0.58–0.13 (81%)attempts 24–7goals 0–0
- Doughty – Spence2:02
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Englund – Spence6:34
xG 0.27–0.27 (49%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).