Sun, Nov 12, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 8, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 313 | 212 | 312 | 837 |
| MIN | 212 | 19 | 05 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:57DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 9:49DALRadek FaksaSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 10:38MINBrandon DuhaimeUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 10:52DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P1 19:12MINVinni LettieriAssists: Marco Rossi, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 2:34DALWyatt JohnstonPPGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.18 xG4–2
- P2 12:11DALEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Nils Lundkvist · Wrist, 0.38 xG5–2
- P2 15:59MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–3
- P3 1:02DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–3
- P3 3:09DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz · Slap, 0.08 xG7–3
- P3 17:57DALWyatt JohnstonSHAssists: Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.29 xG8–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:50MINBrandon Duhaime: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 8:14DALCraig Smith: Holding2 min
- P1 13:37MINConnor Dewar: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:37DALCraig Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:09DALRyan Suter: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:45MINJake Middleton: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:52MINConnor Dewar: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:42MINMarcus Johansson: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:05DALJason Robertson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:14MINBrandon Duhaime: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 18:14MINBrandon Duhaime: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 6:16MINMarc-Andre Fleury: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:30DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:11DALTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Dewar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Marchment9:23
xG 0.29–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston6:55
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel6:34
xG 0.08–0.15 (33%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson6:20
xG 0.13–0.40 (25%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen10:07
xG 0.82–0.08 (92%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:27
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist5:35
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Boldy – Rossi8:54
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Lettieri – Dewar3:15
xG 0.02–0.23 (7%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Eriksson Ek7:29
xG 0.02–0.30 (5%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:15
xG 0.20–0.56 (27%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Brodin – Faber13:01
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Middleton11:33
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Bogosian – Mermis10:21
xG 0.19–0.52 (27%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).