Sun, Nov 12, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 5, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 08 | 314 | 215 | 537 |
| MTL | 09 | 08 | 215 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:15VANConor GarlandAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 9:17VANIlya MikheyevAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 17:57VANDakota JoshuaGWGAssists: Conor Garland, Filip Hronek · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 6:46MTLMike MathesonPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Josh Anderson · Snap, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 18:30VANBrock BoeserENAssists: Dakota Joshua, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–1
- P3 19:11MTLArber XhekajAssists: Jordan Harris, Jake Allen · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 19:42VANPhillip Di GiuseppeENAssists: J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.74 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 9:54MTLMike Matheson: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:41VANTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:54VANNoah Juulsen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:01MTLTanner Pearson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Garland – Suter8:21
xG 0.76–0.05 (94%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser11:54
xG 0.86–0.55 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko8:49
xG 0.32–0.40 (45%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Blueger – Lafferty – Beauvillier10:58
xG 0.61–0.70 (46%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Myers3:23
xG 1.21–0.16 (88%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Hronek – Hughes13:13
xG 0.85–0.38 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Myers – Soucy7:49
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEvans – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard7:16
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Caufield – Slafkovský11:44
xG 0.68–0.67 (51%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Pearson – Monahan8:16
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Anderson – Suzuki – Newhook11:53
xG 0.82–1.29 (39%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Guhle14:36
xG 0.92–0.62 (60%)attempts 19–16goals 0–1
- Matheson – Barron14:15
xG 1.02–0.75 (58%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Guhle – Barron2:16
xG 0.05–0.04 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).