Tue, Nov 14, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Arizona Coyotes 3, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 111 | 03 | 210 | 02 | 326 |
| DAL | 112 | 16 | 117 | 11 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:33ARIClayton KellerAssists: Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 17:52DALEsa LindellAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 9:32DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 12:11ARIJason ZuckerPPAssists: Matias Maccelli, J.J. Moser · Slap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 14:26ARILawson CrouseAssists: Sean Durzi · Snap, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 16:40DALTyler SeguinAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 0:42DALMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.41 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:46ARIJuuso Välimäki: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 19:23DALMason Marchment: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:22ARIJuuso Välimäki: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:14ARINick Schmaltz: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:05ARIMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:31DALRyan Suter: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli8:15
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:30
xG 0.57–0.35 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Boyd – Kerfoot – O'Brien9:00
xG 0.14–0.24 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Zucker – Carcone – Cooley9:15
xG 0.37–0.63 (37%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser10:25
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Dumba – Välimäki9:52
xG 0.24–0.12 (65%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Dumba – Durzi2:17
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:46
xG 0.68–0.34 (66%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Smith – Faksa – Dellandrea7:47
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:33
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston8:54
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lindell3:47
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist2:16
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Suter – Hakanpää2:57
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).