Tue, Nov 14, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 015 | 07 | 030 |
| STL | 110 | 28 | 211 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:09STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 16:17STLJordan KyrouAssists: Torey Krug, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 16:36STLJakub VranaAssists: Torey Krug, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 16:02STLKasperi KapanenENAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.67 xG0–4
- P3 19:18STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.13 xG0–5
Penalties (2)
- P1 12:39STLNick Leddy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:39STLJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCirelli – Eyssimont – Jeannot7:21
xG 0.97–0.20 (83%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Glendening – Motte – Merela7:41
xG 0.52–0.04 (92%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel8:51
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Motte – Eyssimont – Jeannot3:20
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Sergachev14:55
xG 1.26–0.61 (67%)attempts 25–11goals 0–2
- de Haan – Myers13:09
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- de Haan – Raddysh2:17
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Saad – Kyrou15:14
xG 0.81–0.57 (59%)attempts 15–21goals 2–0
- Buchnevich – Kapanen – Thomas13:42
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Hayes – Vrana – Toropchenko9:57
xG 0.51–0.74 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Blais – Neighbours10:25
xG 0.41–0.77 (35%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko19:50
xG 0.76–0.38 (67%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Scandella – Perunovich12:15
xG 0.42–0.81 (34%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug20:23
xG 0.87–1.42 (38%)attempts 20–28goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).