Tue, Nov 14, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
New Jersey Devils 3, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 210 | 117 | 334 |
| WPG | 09 | 312 | 310 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:07WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Josh Morrissey, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 13:54WPGCole PerfettiPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 14:54NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 16:06NJDJohn MarinoAssists: Curtis Lazar, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 18:10WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Cole Perfetti, Dylan Samberg · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 9:54WPGKyle ConnorPPGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 11:58WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Neal Pionk · Snap, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 14:17NJDDawson MercerPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 18:30WPGNikolaj EhlersENAssists: Mason Appleton, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:32WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:43NJDDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
- P2 13:23NJDTyler Toffoli: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:07WPGDylan DeMelo: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:27WPGBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:20NJDBrendan Smith: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:20WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:20NJDBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 7:20WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:15NJDCurtis Lazar: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:15WPGJosh Morrissey: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:53NJDCurtis Lazar: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:53NJDCurtis Lazar: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:53WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:12WPGMason Appleton: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Palat – Lazar8:22
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Bratt – McLeod5:12
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Meier – Mercer – Holtz3:29
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – McLeod9:57
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Marino15:06
xG 1.39–0.78 (64%)attempts 23–10goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Hughes14:45
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Smith – Bahl11:28
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti7:44
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton12:46
xG 0.82–0.68 (55%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo13:49
xG 0.33–0.78 (30%)attempts 7–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Stanley2:12
xG 0.31–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Samberg7:55
xG 0.32–0.25 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk10:50
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).