Tue, Nov 14, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Florida Panthers 5, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 19 | 315 | 531 |
| SJS | 19 | 07 | 26 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:34FLARyan LombergUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 15:58SJSMike HoffmanAssists: Givani Smith, Jan Rutta · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 12:09FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 6:11SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 7:21SJSLuke KuninAssists: Danil Gushchin, Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 10:06FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 11:09FLAKevin StenlundGWGAssists: Uvis Balinskis, Steven Lorentz · Tip-in, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 17:47FLAAleksander BarkovENAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:02FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:47SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:29SJSGivani Smith: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:41FLANick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:40FLASteven Lorentz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:28SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues7:22
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart4:18
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Cousins – Bennett – Tkachuk3:46
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk8:02
xG 0.34–0.35 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Mikkola18:23
xG 0.81–0.59 (58%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Forsling15:51
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Mahura – Balinskis10:03
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Carpenter – Smith3:24
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Granlund – Kunin – Gushchin12:40
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Labanc – Zadina – Sturm3:47
xG 0.06–0.03 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Zadina – Sturm4:11
xG 0.04–0.25 (14%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRutta – Okhotiuk12:36
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Ferraro – Addison3:21
xG 0.13–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Emberson12:41
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).