Wed, Nov 15, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 212 | 17 | 05 | 324 |
| CAR | 09 | 111 | 012 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50PHIOwen TippettAssists: Morgan Frost, Louie Belpedio · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 19:02PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Nick Seeler, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 0:29PHIRyan PoehlingAssists: Sean Walker, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.25 xG3–0
- P2 11:00CARStefan NoesenAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Jack Drury · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:42PHIEgor Zamula: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:13PHINick Seeler: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:16PHICam York: Holding2 min
- P3 9:00CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Poehling – Farabee10:12
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Foerster11:30
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Tippett – Frost5:09
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Cates6:01
xG 0.09–0.38 (19%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sanheim – Walker4:24
xG 0.04–0.01 (82%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Seeler – Walker11:25
xG 0.45–0.48 (49%)attempts 10–18goals 2–1
- Sanheim – York16:10
xG 0.71–0.87 (45%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook7:47
xG 0.58–0.06 (90%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Martinook4:36
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Fast – Noesen – Drury2:01
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis6:29
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin15:11
xG 0.95–0.35 (73%)attempts 25–18goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce17:27
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 17–4goals 0–1
- Orlov – Slavin2:34
xG 0.20–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).