Wed, Nov 15, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
New York Islanders 3, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 213 | 19 | 011 | 00 | 333 |
| VAN | 014 | 214 | 112 | 13 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:30NYIPierre EngvallPPAssists: Oliver Wahlstrom, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 8:52NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 4:39VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Andrei Kuzmenko · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 8:33NYIBo HorvatAssists: Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 11:03VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 8:30VANFilip HronekPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Slap, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 2:36VANQuinn HughesGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:01VANIan Cole: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:37VANIan Cole: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 2:51NYICal Clutterbuck: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:24NYINoah Dobson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:08NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:36NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:45NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:45NYINoah Dobson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Barzal – Holmstrom13:29
xG 0.59–0.11 (84%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall11:42
xG 0.21–0.41 (33%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:05
xG 0.10–0.53 (15%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Wahlstrom9:42
xG 0.22–1.23 (15%)attempts 3–24goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov2:37
xG 0.69–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Aho – Dobson3:08
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Pulock – Romanov13:29
xG 0.52–0.51 (51%)attempts 21–21goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Joshua – Garland8:32
xG 1.12–0.24 (83%)attempts 19–2goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko7:28
xG 0.89–0.17 (84%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Beauvillier – Hoglander5:41
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser10:54
xG 0.07–0.87 (7%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Friedman6:41
xG 1.08–0.14 (88%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Hronek10:03
xG 0.86–0.26 (77%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Friedman – Hronek2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).