Thu, Nov 16, 2023·Avicii Arena, StockholmNeutral site
Detroit Red Wings 4, Ottawa Senators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 014 | 419 | 05 | 03 | 441 |
| OTT | 39 | 110 | 012 | 13 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 9:57OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tim Stützle, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 13:09OTTJake SandersonAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Josh Norris · Snap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 1:18OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 9:39DETLucas RaymondUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 13:20DETDavid PerronAssists: Olli Maatta, Shayne Gostisbehere · Slap, 0.26 xG2–4
- P2 16:33DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, J.T. Compher · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P2 17:12DETShayne GostisbehereAssists: J.T. Compher, Olli Maatta · Slap, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 4:58OTTTim StützleGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Jake Sanderson · Bat, 0.27 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:31DETMichael Rasmussen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:16OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:21OTTTravis Hamonic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:47DETAlex DeBrincat: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:13DETDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:02DETJake Walman: Holding2 min
- P3 2:41OTTJakob Chychrun: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:36DETDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:29DETBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFabbri – Fischer – Veleno10:34
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Sprong – Rasmussen – Kostin9:32
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond13:20
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Perron – Copp – Compher8:49
xG 0.56–0.71 (44%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Gostisbehere15:45
xG 1.10–0.55 (67%)attempts 18–12goals 3–0
- Walman – Seider16:21
xG 0.50–0.49 (51%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Seider2:17
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle9:35
xG 0.63–0.51 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 1–3
- Kubalik – Batherson – Jarventie8:10
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Chartier – Batherson3:17
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Norris – Tkachuk3:30
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub15:19
xG 0.85–0.34 (71%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker16:37
xG 0.32–0.69 (32%)attempts 10–18goals 1–2
- Hamonic – Brannstrom10:22
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).