Thu, Nov 16, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Arizona Coyotes 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 115 | 28 | 332 |
| CBJ | 017 | 17 | 117 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:45CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Ivan Provorov · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 6:20ARIBarrett HaytonAssists: Michael Kesselring, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 9:39ARILogan CooleyPPAssists: Sean Durzi, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 10:07ARILawson CrouseGWGAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Snap, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 18:03CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Zach Werenski, Alexandre Texier · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:12ARIClayton Keller: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:35ARILogan Cooley: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:57CBJJake Bean: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:32ARIMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P3 9:27CBJDavid Jiricek: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli4:43
xG 0.80–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton5:41
xG 0.46–0.14 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Zucker – Schmaltz – Keller2:57
xG 0.13–0.10 (58%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Kerfoot – Crouse2:19
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Kesselring9:33
xG 0.75–0.54 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Durzi – Moser14:57
xG 0.87–0.77 (53%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Dumba – Durzi3:10
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli10:35
xG 1.16–0.86 (57%)attempts 22–15goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Danforth – Texier13:25
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Jenner – Fix-Wolansky – Sillinger8:35
xG 0.42–0.68 (38%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Laine – Chinakhov7:43
xG 0.03–0.37 (7%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski2:01
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Severson – Provorov14:01
xG 0.94–0.72 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Provorov2:33
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).