Thu, Nov 16, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 111 | 310 | 531 |
| PIT | 19 | 17 | 07 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:34NJDCurtis LazarSHAssists: Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 3:17PITBryan RustAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 3:55NJDNathan BastianAssists: Erik Haula, Dougie Hamilton · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 2:35NJDJesper BrattGWGAssists: Luke Hughes, Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 11:24NJDAlexander HoltzAssists: Dawson Mercer, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 11:44NJDTyler ToffoliAssists: Jesper Bratt, Luke Hughes · Snap, 0.15 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:53NJDKevin Bahl: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:38PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:19NJDErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:48NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Bratt – McLeod14:02
xG 1.24–0.72 (63%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Palat – Mercer – Holtz14:19
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Haula – Lazar – Willman9:34
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Hughes8:33
xG 0.96–0.14 (87%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Marino – Hughes4:28
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Miller4:07
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Smith – Rakell13:27
xG 0.76–0.44 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:22
xG 0.66–0.73 (47%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
- Nieto – Hinostroza – Acciari7:02
xG 0.01–0.38 (2%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Eller – O'Connor – Zohorna9:52
xG 0.11–0.76 (12%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson15:44
xG 0.71–0.55 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Ruhwedel – Shea11:10
xG 0.42–0.46 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Letang – Graves15:28
xG 0.31–0.89 (26%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).