Sat, Nov 18, 2023·Avicii Arena, StockholmNeutral site
Minnesota Wild 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 17 | 07 | 01 | 0 | 125 |
| OTT | 010 | 09 | 111 | 01 | 1 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:22MINMarco RossiAssists: Brock Faber, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P3 3:22OTTErik BrannstromAssists: Anton Forsberg, Travis Hamonic · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. OTT Tim Stützle stopped
- 2. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. OTT Drake Batherson stopped
- 4. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 5. OTT Josh Norris scored
- 6. MIN Joel Eriksson Ek stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:49OTTDrake Batherson: Holding2 min
- P1 8:38MINMatt Boldy: Holding2 min
- P1 14:19MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:19OTTZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:19MINMarcus Johansson: Interference2 min
- P2 3:38OTTErik Brannstrom: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P2 10:00OTTRoby Jarventie: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:11MINVinni Lettieri: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:14OTTMathieu Joseph: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:21MINPatrick Maroon: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:56OTTDrake Batherson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi12:31
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Petan – Duhaime – Dewar4:23
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Lettieri9:24
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy11:20
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber16:41
xG 0.65–0.38 (63%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Merrill8:18
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton10:38
xG 0.08–0.29 (21%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Joseph – Stützle11:52
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Norris – Tkachuk10:52
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Chartier – MacEwen – Kelly2:51
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Chartier – Batherson3:05
xG 0.04–0.11 (25%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Bernard-Docker15:55
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub12:22
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brannstrom10:47
xG 0.10–0.12 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).