Sat, Nov 18, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Edmonton Oilers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 219 | 18 | 115 | 442 |
| TBL | 110 | 13 | 411 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39EDMDerek RyanSHAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 8:31EDMJames HamblinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 19:09TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 12:56TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 15:55EDMDerek RyanAssists: Warren Foegele, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 3:54TBLTanner JeannotAssists: Michael Eyssimont, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 8:04EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 9:28TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.13 xG4–4
- P3 10:07TBLLuke GlendeningGWGAssists: Cole Koepke, Darren Raddysh · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–5
- P3 19:05TBLMikhail SergachevENAssists: Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:27EDMEvan Bouchard: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:41TBLAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:41EDMVincent Desharnais: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:19TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P1 13:13EDMCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:43TBLMikhail Sergachev: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:16EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:38TBLMichael Eyssimont: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:36TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:36EDMCody Ceci: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 7:08TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:31EDMZach Hyman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:53TBLAustin Watson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Jeannot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:50
xG 0.83–0.10 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Foegele – Ryan – McLeod5:01
xG 0.73–0.02 (98%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Gagner – Erne – Hamblin3:53
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Brown – McDavid5:51
xG 0.47–0.21 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Desharnais9:35
xG 1.09–0.26 (81%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Ceci – Nurse14:47
xG 1.35–0.54 (72%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard11:36
xG 0.95–0.34 (74%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Watson – Glendening – Koepke5:45
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel8:44
xG 0.59–0.76 (44%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Motte – Eyssimont – Jeannot6:37
xG 0.29–0.75 (28%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Barré-Boulet2:52
xG 0.00–0.58 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Raddysh – Sergachev3:49
xG 0.06–0.12 (35%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- de Haan – Cernak2:09
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev10:11
xG 0.61–0.94 (39%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).