Sat, Nov 18, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 210 | 011 | 314 | 535 |
| NJD | 210 | 011 | 112 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:25NJDJack HughesAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 14:11NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Braden Schneider, Zac Jones · Snap, 0.25 xG2–1
- P1 19:12NJDOndrej PalatPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 1:17NJDErik HaulaAssists: Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 11:04NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 17:11NYRJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Vincent Trocheck · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 18:27NYRBlake WheelerENUnassisted · Snap, 0.47 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:22NJDAlexander Holtz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:14NYRVincent Trocheck: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:55NJDDawson Mercer: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:32NJDAlexander Holtz: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière14:01
xG 1.08–0.36 (75%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Bonino – Kakko – Cuylle8:46
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Goodrow – Vesey10:12
xG 0.43–0.71 (38%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Kreider – Zibanejad11:17
xG 0.16–0.81 (17%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Schneider13:14
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller18:33
xG 0.74–0.90 (45%)attempts 21–19goals 1–1
- Gustafsson – Lindgren15:23
xG 0.57–0.81 (42%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Lazar – Hughes9:54
xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Toffoli – Bratt – McLeod10:12
xG 0.91–0.78 (54%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Palat – Mercer – Holtz8:06
xG 0.07–0.16 (29%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Palat – Bastian – Mercer4:23
xG 0.01–0.30 (3%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler13:39
xG 0.75–0.16 (82%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
- Marino – Bahl13:13
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Smith – Marino2:44
xG 0.38–0.07 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).