Sat, Nov 18, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Arizona Coyotes 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 111 | 14 | 03 | 218 |
| WPG | 211 | 18 | 27 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:53ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: J.J. Moser, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 17:04WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Neal Pionk, Brenden Dillon · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 18:02WPGVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 6:08ARIMathew DumbaAssists: Travis Boyd, Nick Schmaltz · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 11:26WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 4:15WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 17:30WPGMason AppletonENAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:37ARIJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:55WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:11WPGMason Appleton: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:17ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:17WPGBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli11:37
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller2:09
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Boyd – Schmaltz – Keller11:24
xG 0.14–0.26 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – O'Brien – Kelemen6:32
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser14:54
xG 0.63–0.29 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Dumba – Kesselring13:56
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Brown – Stecher13:19
xG 0.03–0.42 (7%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Iafallo14:05
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti12:20
xG 0.18–0.03 (85%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton12:52
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Jonsson-Fjallby – Barron – Gustafsson5:27
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey16:51
xG 0.45–0.29 (60%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Morrissey – Pionk2:32
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk12:43
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).