Sun, Nov 19, 2023·Avicii Arena, StockholmNeutral site
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 214 | 05 | 14 | 12 | 425 |
| MIN | 111 | 011 | 213 | 01 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37MINJon MerrillAssists: Marco Rossi, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 12:43TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 18:23TORMatthew KniesAssists: Mitch Marner, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 4:22TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 6:10MINJake MiddletonAssists: Marcus Foligno, Joel Eriksson Ek · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 8:42MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Brock Faber, Jonas Brodin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 3:09TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:24MINMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:38MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:11TORJake McCabe: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:06TORTJ Brodie: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:13TORMitch Marner: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander14:25
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies13:28
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson5:52
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Nylander2:02
xG 0.05–0.24 (16%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly19:26
xG 0.58–0.50 (53%)attempts 18–15goals 1–2
- McCabe – Lagesson2:49
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lagesson – Benoit8:11
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi12:08
xG 0.91–0.59 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Johansson – Gaudreau – Boldy10:00
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Maroon – Duhaime – Dewar8:29
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Eriksson Ek12:12
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Merrill12:25
xG 0.78–0.17 (82%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton15:05
xG 0.93–0.69 (57%)attempts 14–21goals 1–2
- Middleton – Faber3:13
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).