Sun, Nov 19, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 18 | 16 | 16 | 320 |
| CHI | 08 | 212 | 06 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Zach Benson, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 3:28CHITaylor RaddyshAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Nick Foligno · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 10:55BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 17:28CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Connor Bedard, Lukas Reichel · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 10:36BUFErik JohnsonGWGAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:26BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:19BUFOwen Power: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:38CHIKevin Korchinski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:26CHIKevin Korchinski: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:33BUFMattias Samuelsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:31CHITyler Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMittelstadt – Peterka – Benson5:42
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt2:38
xG 0.14–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Greenway2:10
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson2:18
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Johnson7:55
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power5:59
xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Power2:30
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Perry – Foligno – Dickinson7:30
xG 0.09–0.09 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Johnson – Hall – Raddysh9:12
xG 0.25–0.28 (48%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Donato – Entwistle – Johnson8:34
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Kurashev – Reichel – Bedard11:21
xG 0.56–0.64 (47%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Korchinski15:03
xG 0.64–0.47 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Jones – Vlasic14:50
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Murphy – Vlasic2:43
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).