Mon, Nov 20, 2023·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Edmonton Oilers 3, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 27 | 112 | 010 | 329 |
| FLA | 213 | 213 | 17 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:59EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:00EDMEvander KaneAssists: Derek Ryan, Ryan McLeod · Snap, 0.27 xG2–0
- P1 10:36FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 15:53FLANiko MikkolaAssists: Kevin Stenlund · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 5:00EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Snap, 0.35 xG3–2
- P2 6:08FLANiko MikkolaAssists: Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P2 13:42FLAKevin StenlundGWGAssists: Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 19:17FLASam BennettENAssists: Kevin Stenlund, Gustav Forsling · Snap, 0.74 xG3–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 9:08EDMEvander Kane: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:14FLAAnton Lundell: Holding2 min
- P1 13:02EDMEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:17FLAJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:17EDMVincent Desharnais: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:19EDMZach Hyman: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:19FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:00FLASam Reinhart: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 10:37EDMMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:11EDMCalvin Pickard: Holding2 min
- P3 5:53FLAGustav Forsling: Interference2 min
- P3 6:20EDMEvan Bouchard: Holding2 min
- P3 6:20FLARyan Lomberg: Embellishment2 min
- P3 6:34FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:34EDMZach Hyman: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:34EDMEvander Kane: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:22FLAKevin Stenlund: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – Ryan – McLeod5:08
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:46
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Brown – Foegele – McLeod2:10
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Draisaitl – McDavid9:11
xG 0.47–0.66 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Ekholm – Bouchard12:33
xG 0.75–0.72 (51%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Kulak – Desharnais3:14
xG 0.10–0.15 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse11:50
xG 0.69–0.76 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk9:56
xG 0.96–0.22 (81%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Lomberg – Gadjovich3:12
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell10:25
xG 0.53–0.88 (38%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
- Cousins – Rodrigues – Stenlund7:55
xG 0.39–0.77 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Kulikov10:27
xG 0.75–0.27 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Montour – Mikkola12:32
xG 0.32–0.65 (33%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling13:41
xG 0.71–1.08 (40%)attempts 11–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).