Mon, Nov 20, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 010 | 35 | 00 | 427 |
| TBL | 120 | 112 | 214 | 11 | 547 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:39TBLTanner JeannotAssists: Tyler Motte, Michael Eyssimont · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 9:55BOSPavel ZachaAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 19:30TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 6:26BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Mason Lohrei, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 7:47BOSJohn BeecherAssists: Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 8:44TBLAustin WatsonAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Nick Perbix · Slap, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 16:09BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 19:55TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Slap, 0.14 xG4–4
- OT 1:19TBLBrandon HagelGWGAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:48BOSMason Lohrei: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:55TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P2 3:17TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:20BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
- P2 4:47BOSHampus Lindholm: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:20TBLTanner Jeannot: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:20BOSBrandon Carlo: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:29BOSDavid Pastrnak: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:48BOSPavel Zacha: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:40BOSJohn Beecher: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Poitras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Pastrnak – Zacha12:21
xG 1.00–0.50 (67%)attempts 18–11goals 2–1
- Steen – Lauko – Beecher4:54
xG 0.15–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Heinen – DeBrusk – Beecher2:05
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Heinen – DeBrusk – Poitras5:19
xG 0.02–0.07 (21%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Mitchell5:54
xG 0.39–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy5:00
xG 0.44–0.09 (84%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Forbort – Carlo2:23
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMotte – Eyssimont – Jeannot3:48
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Eyssimont – Jeannot6:38
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Watson – Glendening – Koepke3:20
xG 0.00–0.05 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Motte – Paul3:17
xG 0.04–0.10 (30%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Perbix13:48
xG 1.16–0.32 (79%)attempts 26–10goals 2–1
- de Haan – Raddysh11:00
xG 0.43–0.12 (79%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Raddysh – Sergachev2:13
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).