Mon, Nov 20, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 3, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 215 | 06 | 329 |
| NSH | 110 | 16 | 214 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:00COLAndrew CoglianoSHAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 19:42NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Cody Glass, Philip Tomasino · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 3:56NSHJeremy LauzonAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 8:55COLDevon ToewsAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 13:33COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 19:22NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Colton Sissons · Bat, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 19:38NSHYakov TreninGWGAssists: Cole Smith · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:13NSHGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:42COLMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:48NSHTyson Barrie: Interference2 min
- P1 15:30COLRoss Colton: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:12NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:54COLJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:05NSHCole Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:58NSHLiam Foudy: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:30COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Glass
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen13:10
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Tatar – Johansen – Drouin5:59
xG 0.17–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor7:45
xG 0.24–0.13 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta5:26
xG 0.05–0.12 (31%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Byram11:47
xG 0.58–0.20 (75%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Jones9:27
xG 0.10–0.18 (37%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar13:16
xG 0.49–0.61 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:21
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Foudy5:45
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Glass – Sherwood – Parssinen6:20
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- McCarron – Tomasino – Smith4:26
xG 0.10–0.19 (35%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Carrier13:23
xG 0.92–0.35 (73%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Josi – Barrie2:25
xG 0.02–0.11 (18%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Barrie – Stastney10:18
xG 0.04–0.17 (18%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).