Wed, Nov 22, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Edmonton Oilers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 14 | 111 | 323 |
| CAR | 412 | 17 | 18 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:17CARJesper FastAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jalen Chatfield · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 9:52CARJack DruryAssists: Michael Bunting, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 11:23CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P1 14:48CARSeth JarvisGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.08 xG0–4
- P1 17:13EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.33 xG1–4
- P2 2:13CARMartin NecasAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–5
- P2 17:48EDMMattias EkholmSHAssists: Ryan McLeod, Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 3:46EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 18:56CARBrent BurnsENAssists: Jordan Staal, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.39 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:40EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:08CARStefan Noesen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:30EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:07EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Interference2 min
- P2 14:20CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:30EDMEvan Bouchard: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:56CARMartin Necas: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:58EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min
- P3 18:47CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid4:36
xG 0.92–0.15 (86%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Foegele – Ryan – McLeod5:31
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Kane – Brown – Draisaitl3:55
xG 0.13–0.17 (45%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins8:27
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:47
xG 0.96–0.51 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Nurse – Desharnais10:36
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Ceci – Broberg2:40
xG 0.08–0.32 (19%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNecas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov10:45
xG 1.28–0.53 (71%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook10:22
xG 0.53–0.02 (97%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Noesen – Bunting – Drury5:48
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis10:49
xG 0.44–1.31 (25%)attempts 5–17goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce16:01
xG 1.29–0.77 (63%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
- Orlov – Chatfield13:22
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Burns – Slavin13:12
xG 0.56–1.10 (34%)attempts 13–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).