Wed, Nov 22, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 0, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 07 | 02 | 016 |
| DET | 310 | 111 | 07 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:58DETLucas RaymondGWGAssists: Robby Fabbri, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:18DETDylan LarkinAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 18:10DETRobby FabbriAssists: Daniel Sprong, Joseph Veleno · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 9:05DETMoritz SeiderPPAssists: Daniel Sprong, Jake Walman · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:39NJDAlexander Holtz: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:05NJDKevin Bahl: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 17:34DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:35NJDErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:11NJDDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:53DETDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Bratt – Hughes4:05
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Haula – Bastian – McLeod3:00
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Palat – McLeod – Holtz2:16
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Haula – Lazar – McLeod2:44
xG 0.05–0.05 (52%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Hughes8:23
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Bahl2:27
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Marino – Bahl6:14
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFischer – Sprong – Rasmussen3:19
xG 0.29–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond2:29
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Compher – DeBrincat – Rasmussen3:40
xG 0.13–0.21 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Fabbri3:46
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Gostisbehere4:12
xG 0.32–0.09 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Petry – Maatta4:14
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Petry – Gostisbehere3:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).