Wed, Nov 22, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 210 | 111 | 04 | 02 | 327 |
| WSH | 110 | 112 | 15 | 13 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:09BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Tyson Jost, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:04BUFZach BensonAssists: Victor Olofsson · Between legs, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 17:01WSHAlexander AlexeyevAssists: Nic Dowd, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 7:50WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Connor McMichael · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 16:18BUFDylan CozensPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt · Slap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 18:45WSHTom WilsonAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 4:52WSHDylan StromeGWGAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:05BUFJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:05WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:05BUFJordan Greenway: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:05WSHNick Jensen: Holding2 min
- P2 14:47WSHConnor McMichael: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:15BUFVictor Olofsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:29WSHConnor McMichael: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Benson2:18
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Greenway3:48
xG 0.01–0.02 (43%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Greenway – Jost3:29
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Mittelstadt – Peterka – Benson7:39
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Clifton9:07
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Jokiharju – Power5:40
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin5:34
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome6:15
xG 0.45–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Milano – Protas – Lapierre5:48
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Strome3:05
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Oshie – Mantha – McMichael6:13
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin3:28
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin18:02
xG 0.66–0.55 (54%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Alexeyev8:10
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).