Wed, Nov 22, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
St. Louis Blues 6, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 29 | 314 | 18 | 631 |
| ARI | 27 | 312 | 06 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:47STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jake Neighbours · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 10:40ARINick BjugstadAssists: Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 12:15STLColton ParaykoAssists: Brandon Saad · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 18:06ARIJason ZuckerAssists: Michael Carcone · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 0:22ARILawson CrouseAssists: Matias Maccelli, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 3:40STLNick LeddySHAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- P2 4:13STLAlexey ToropchenkoSHAssists: Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P2 6:56ARIMichael CarconeAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Travis Boyd · Wrist, 0.89 xG4–4
- P2 8:00ARINick SchmaltzAssists: J.J. Moser, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–5
- P2 10:49STLRobert ThomasAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Scott Perunovich · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–5
- P3 4:13STLKevin HayesGWGAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.20 xG6–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:20STLBrayden Schenn: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:32STLScott Perunovich: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:01STLAlexey Toropchenko: Kneeing2 min
- P3 1:01ARIMichael Kesselring: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:26ARIMichael Kesselring: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:26ARILiam O'Brien: Abusive language10 min
- P3 6:11ARITroy Stecher: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:36ARIMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Sundqvist – Blais – Alexandrov4:47
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Kapanen – Toropchenko9:18
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas11:46
xG 0.39–0.74 (35%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
- Schenn – Saad – Neighbours9:09
xG 0.59–1.32 (31%)attempts 15–18goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Perunovich8:45
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 3–0
- Leddy – Parayko18:29
xG 0.37–0.82 (31%)attempts 15–20goals 1–2
- Faulk – Krug14:44
xG 0.50–1.58 (24%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli10:08
xG 1.18–0.21 (85%)attempts 23–6goals 2–0
- Zucker – Kerfoot – Carcone8:27
xG 0.55–0.25 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley10:19
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Boyd – O'Brien – Jenik5:23
xG 0.01–0.14 (4%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Kesselring9:11
xG 1.17–0.27 (81%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Stecher – Kesselring3:04
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Durzi – Moser15:00
xG 0.88–0.60 (59%)attempts 23–14goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).