Wed, Nov 22, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
San Jose Sharks 1, Seattle Kraken 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 01 | 16 | 114 |
| SEA | 417 | 14 | 29 | 730 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:28SEABrandon TanevAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Jamie Oleksiak · Poke, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:36SEAOliver BjorkstrandGWGAssists: Yanni Gourde, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 11:07SEAAdam LarssonAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P1 18:45SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Will Borgen, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 3:36SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–5
- P3 2:22SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Brian Dumoulin · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–6
- P3 15:32SJSMike HoffmanAssists: Nikita Okhotiuk, Kyle Burroughs · Snap, 0.08 xG1–6
- P3 15:46SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:52SJSFilip Zadina: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:00SEATye Kartye: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:12SJSFilip Zadina: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:07SJSKyle Burroughs: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:07SEABrandon Tanev: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:50SEAJustin Schultz: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:03SJSNikita Okhotiuk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Granlund – Duclair – Zadina5:38
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Hertl – Duclair – Zetterlund5:28
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Granlund – Zadina – Eklund3:39
xG 0.00–0.14 (1%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Hertl – Zetterlund – Eklund5:34
xG 0.06–0.35 (14%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Knyzhov3:01
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Addison2:20
xG 0.01–0.06 (8%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Okhotiuk4:04
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers10:46
xG 0.62–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Tanev7:30
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:09
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 3–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Kartye2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen16:45
xG 1.03–0.26 (80%)attempts 19–11goals 4–0
- Larsson – Dunn14:02
xG 0.51–0.14 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin10:58
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).