Fri, Nov 24, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 5, Boston Bruins 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 28 | 111 | 29 | 528 |
| BOS | 09 | 111 | 17 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:13DETJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Lucas Raymond · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 15:01DETAlex DeBrincatUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 3:00BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 13:24DETRobby FabbriGWGAssists: Daniel Sprong, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 4:12BOSDanton HeinenAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mason Lohrei · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 5:08DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: J.T. Compher, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 18:15DETDavid PerronENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:02BOSMorgan Geekie: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 7:57DETDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P1 10:59BOSPavel Zacha: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:06DETJustin Holl: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 11:19BOSMason Lohrei: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:00DETJustin Holl: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:02BOSBrandon Carlo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:20BOSBrandon Carlo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:19BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Poitras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFischer – Sprong – Kostin5:55
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Compher – DeBrincat – Rasmussen9:15
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Larkin – Veleno – Raymond8:47
xG 0.27–0.47 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Perron – Copp – Fabbri6:05
xG 0.05–0.32 (14%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Maatta12:17
xG 0.69–0.25 (74%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Petry – Chiarot13:35
xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Seider14:37
xG 0.53–0.75 (42%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Pastrnak – Zacha8:59
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Marchand – Pastrnak – Poitras2:03
xG 0.03–0.07 (29%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Coyle – Heinen – Frederic7:37
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- DeBrusk – Geekie – Poitras9:15
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcAvoy – Lohrei8:59
xG 0.39–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mitchell4:07
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Lohrei6:15
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).