Skip to content
Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 24, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis

Nashville Predators 8, St. Louis Blues 3

Away

Nashville Predators

8

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.

STL winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH31441318835
STL11918112339

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:57NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jeremy Lauzon · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P1 7:25NSHYakov TreninAssists: Colton Sissons, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.96 xG2–0
  3. P1 13:53NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
  4. P1 16:32STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Marco Scandella, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
  5. P2 2:45NSHSpencer StastneyGWGAssists: Luke Evangelista, Kiefer Sherwood · Snap, 0.13 xG4–1
  6. P2 4:46NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.27 xG5–1
  7. P2 6:00NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Philip Tomasino, Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–1
  8. P2 10:17STLRobert ThomasAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Brandon Saad · Slap, 0.13 xG6–2
  9. P2 17:29NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Cole Smith · Wrist, 0.14 xG7–2
  10. P3 5:23STLJake NeighboursPPAssists: Torey Krug, Jordan Kyrou · Tip-in, 0.12 xG7–3
  11. P3 12:42NSHKiefer SherwoodUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG8–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 7:50NSHRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 13:25STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 13:25NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 3:04STLNikita Alexandrov: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P2 3:58STLPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 8:03STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 17:57STLOskar Sundqvist: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 1:15NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 4:16NSHTyson Barrie: Interference2 min · PPG
  10. P3 9:48STLSammy Blais: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 16:06NSHGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
46% to win54% to win
← NSH attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Thomas
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHSTL
35Shots on goal39
4.5Expected goals3.1
51Shot attempts67
15Faceoffs won34
5Power plays4
13Penalty minutes15
11Hits20
17Blocked shots8
3Giveaways6
12Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. bestSissons – Trenin – Foudy8:05

    xG 1.18–0.29 (80%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0

  2. McCarron – Tomasino – Smith8:20

    xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0

  3. Sherwood – Parssinen – Evangelista4:35

    xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0

  4. Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg7:32

    xG 0.49–0.46 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMcDonagh – Josi15:04

    xG 1.66–0.49 (77%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0

  2. Lauzon – Carrier10:36

    xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1

  3. Barrie – Stastney11:23

    xG 0.46–0.96 (32%)attempts 8–17goals 2–1

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours4:45

    xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0

  2. Hayes – Kapanen – Toropchenko9:07

    xG 0.66–0.64 (51%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1

  3. Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas5:25

    xG 0.48–0.59 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 1–2

  4. Sundqvist – Blais – Alexandrov4:52

    xG 0.02–0.30 (6%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestScandella – Perunovich11:04

    xG 0.75–0.40 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0

  2. Leddy – Parayko16:46

    xG 0.76–0.82 (48%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1

  3. Faulk – Krug11:20

    xG 0.56–1.39 (29%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 3.1 xGNSH 4.5 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 51/100 · #706 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.82 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 46% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.

STL winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).