Sat, Nov 25, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Calgary Flames 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 04 | 111 | 015 | 130 |
| COL | 110 | 28 | 06 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:31COLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 10:10COLRyan JohansenGWGUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 12:03CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Blake Coleman · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 12:37COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:16COLRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P1 2:38CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Interference2 min
- P1 5:03CGYBlake Coleman: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 18:58COLBowen Byram: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:14COLTomas Tatar: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:57CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:57CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:57COLMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:47COLRoss Colton: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:30CGYNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Dube – Ruzicka6:54
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Sharangovich10:42
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary7:05
xG 0.06–0.11 (35%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau10:17
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin11:17
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Gilbert9:08
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson2:41
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Colton – O'Connor8:41
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Tatar – Johansen – Drouin7:15
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta6:40
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen14:06
xG 0.43–0.81 (34%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Byram7:21
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Jones2:28
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Byram2:45
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).